特朗普关税心理战

我爱免费

作者：微信文章


Six months ago, the prospect of a 15% tariff on all goods from a major trading partner like Japan — vastly higher than seen in modern times — would likely have spooked financial markets and caused a wave of economic worry.
六个月前，如果对像日本这样的重要贸易伙伴的所有商品征收 15%的关税——这个水平远高于现代历史中的惯例——很可能会惊扰金融市场，并引发一轮经济担忧。

---

Now it brings relief.
但现在，这反而令人松了一口气。

---

Why it matters: President Trump shifted the trade war psychology. Financial markets and manufacturers alike have come to accept that double-digit tariffs are the new reality. And they've concluded that it's not so terrible, considering it could be worse.
为什么重要：特朗普总统改变了贸易战的心理预期。金融市场和制造商都已经接受了“双位数关税”是新的现实。他们得出的结论是：情况虽然不好，但考虑到可能更糟，也还算可以接受。

---

When a 25% tariff is on the table, striking a deal at 15% brings a collective sigh of relief — even though it's more than 5 times the pre-Trump levels and well above the 10% minimum discussed this spring.
当 25%的关税摆在桌面上时，最终以 15%达成协议便令各方松了一口气——尽管这个水平是特朗普上任前的 5倍多，也远高于今年春季讨论的10%起征点。

---

What they're saying: "The 15% rate in the Japan deal looks roughly like a new global tariff floor," Tobin Marcus, head of U.S. policy and politics at Wolfe Research, wrote in a note.
观点：“日本协议中的 15%税率，大致可被视为新的全球关税底线”，沃尔夫研究公司美国政策主管托宾·马库斯在一份报告中写道。

---

"This 15% rate looks to us like roughly the best that the EU can hope to do, and the 19-20% rates that we've seen in other Asian deals ... look like they'll be the rough settling point for countries that don't 'wow' the White House with offers like Japan did," Marcus wrote.
“对我们来说，15%大概是欧盟能争取到的最优条件；而其他亚洲协议中出现的 19%-20%税率……看起来会成为那些无法像日本那样打动白宫的国家所面临的常态水平”，马库斯补充道。

---

The big picture: A substantial chunk of foreign goods will likely be subject to an import tax of at least 15% — and possibly as high as 20% — if recent deals are any indication.
大局来看：如果近期的协议可以作为参考，大量外国商品将面临至少15%、甚至高达 20%的进口税。

---

That far exceeds the 10% minimum rate that looked plausible just a few weeks ago.
这个税率远高于几周前还被认为合理的 10%起点。

---

Still, it is less of a burden for countries like Japan. Without a deal, Japanese goods were set to face a 25% tariff rate as soon as next week.
不过，对于日本这样的国家来说，这仍然减轻了负担。如果没有协议，日本商品下周起将面临 25%的高额关税。

---

The intrigue: White House officials acknowledge this dynamic, suggesting that some nations got away with a lighter tariff rate than what the administration could have imposed.
值得注意的是：白宫官员承认了这种策略上的微妙变化，暗示一些国家获得了低于原本可能施加的税率。

---

For instance, senior administration officials pointed out Tuesday that Indonesia will have a higher tariff than it started with on Jan. 20, but a lower one than it had on April 2, Liberation Day.
例如，高层官员在周二指出，印尼的关税水平将高于 1月 20日的起始点，但低于 4月 2日“解放日”时的预定水平。

---

The text of the U.S.-Indonesia trade agreement was released Tuesday, confirming that its American exports will be subject to 19% tariffs — down from the 32% levy threatened earlier this year.
美印贸易协定的正式文本于周二公布，确认美国对印尼出口商品的关税将为 19%，低于今年早些时候威胁实施的 32%。

---

Yes, but: It's unclear what benefits the U.S. will get in exchange.
然而问题在于：目前尚不清楚美国从中得到了哪些实际好处。

---

Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan said they would open up their markets to U.S. exporters, yet it's unknown if foreign consumers have the appetite for our domestically produced goods.
印尼、菲律宾和日本都表示会向美国出口商开放市场，但尚不确定外国消费者是否真的有兴趣购买美国制造的商品。

---

Trump said that Japan would invest a whopping $550 billion stateside, with the U.S. taking 90% of the profits. It's uncertain what shape such an investment might take.
特朗普称，日本将在美国投资高达 5500亿美元，并称美国将获得其中90%的利润。但这项投资将以什么形式落实，目前仍未明确。

---

The financial market reaction to the Japan deal tells the story.
金融市场对美日协议的反应已经说明了一切。

---

The new tariffs might be meaningfully higher than those envisioned in the early weeks of Trump's term, but they still prompted a global stock rally and a rise in Japanese bond yields.
尽管新关税水平远高于特朗普执政初期设想的数字，但它们仍推动了全球股市上涨和日本国债收益率上升。

---

By the numbers: The Nikkei 225 stock index rose 3.5% Wednesday on the news, with particularly strong gains among automakers.
具体数据：受该消息影响，日经225指数周三上涨了 3.5%，其中汽车制造商表现尤为强劲。

---

Shares of Toyota popped 14%, while Honda's stock rose over 11%.
丰田股价上涨 14%，本田则上涨超过 11%。

---

The yield on Japanese government bonds surged, with the 10-year security rising 0.09 percentage points to 1.6%.
日本国债收益率大幅上涨，10年期国债收益率上升了 0.09个百分点，达到1.6%。

---

Between the lines: Investors believe that the trade deal will keep Japanese economic activity on track, providing a more stable backdrop for the country's auto and other export sectors.
字里行间：投资者认为，这项贸易协议将保持日本经济运行稳定，为该国汽车及其他出口产业提供更坚实的环境基础。

---

That, in turn, will make the Bank of Japan more comfortable raising interest rates this fall, as a major downside risk to the economy — the potential for a plunge in demand from the U.S. — looks to be off the table.
这反过来将让日本央行在今秋更有信心加息，因为一项主要的经济下行风险——来自美国需求暴跌的可能性——看似已经被解除。

---

"The deal increases the likelihood that Japan's effective tariff rate will be lower than that of competing countries," wrote JPMorgan economist Ayako Fujita in a note. "If so, this could even be a long-term positive for Japan's manufacturing sector."
摩根大通经济学家藤田绫子在一份报告中写道：“这项协议提高了日本有效关税率低于其他竞争国家的可能性。如果真是这样，这甚至可能对日本制造业构成长期利好。”

---

The bottom line: "One of the policy themes of 2025 has been the Overton Window, which is essentially the possible range of policies that are considered acceptable and feasible by the mainstream public at a given time," wrote TD Cowen policy analyst Chris Krueger in a note.
总结：“2025年的政策主轴之一是‘奥弗顿之窗’，也就是公众在某一时间点认为可以接受、可行的政策范围”，TD Cowen政策分析师克里斯·克鲁格在一份报告中写道。

---

"15% tariff on the U.S.'s fifth-largest trading partner? Better than 25%," he added.
他补充道：“对美国第五大贸易伙伴征收 15%的关税？总比25%强。”
本文来自 axios。原文标题：How Trump has shifted trade war psychology