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发表于 2005-5-24 21:07
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Report Says China's Currency Policy Poses Risk of Inflation
PARIS, May 24 - China's fixed exchange rate for its currency against the United States dollar is increasing the risk of inflation and overheating in Asia's second-largest economy, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned today.
But the stimulus provided by China's economic expansion should continue to underpin strong growth in Asia, offsetting a slowdown in the United States and sagging confidence in much of Europe, the organization said in a report on the outlook for the global economy.
The pegging of the yuan to the dollar has already resulted in a 3 percent drop this year in its effective exchange rate against the currencies of all China's trading partners, the O.E.C.D., a Paris-based think tank, said.
In the United States, interest rate increases by the United States Federal Reserve appeared to have put the economy on track for a ``soft landing," according to Jean-Philippe Cotis, the organization's chief economist. Monetary policy would have to tighten further, he said, ``but they are back on trend."
``We see subdued recovery and underlying inflation slowing considerably," Mr. Cotis said.
Projections in the report showed United States growth slowing to a 3.3 percent rate in 2006 from 3.6 percent this year and 4.4 percent in 2004. The expected growth rate for this year was revised up from a 3.3 percent rate forecast in December.
The report showed United States inflation dipping to 2.2 percent next year from 2.4 percent in 2005, in response to a tightening in short-term interest rates, measured in three-month deposit terms, to 4.9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2006 from 2.3 percent at the end of 2004. But for that to happen, the Federal Reserve, which early this month raised its benchmark by a quarter point to 3 percent in the latest of a series of upward moves, must tighten more, the report said.
In contrast, facing flaccid growth in the major economies of the euro zone, the European Central Bank should cut rates, the organization said. Its latest forecasts showed growth in the euro area sagging to a 1.2 percent rate this year, revised down by more than half a percentage point from 1.9 percent projected in December, and recovering to no better that 2 percent in 2006.
The report said that the yuan exchange rate, and the flood of textile exports from China after the ending of international textile quotas on Jan 1, will keep China's trade surplus expanding this year and next , it said. The current account, a broad measure of trade in goods and services, is likely to bring in net inflows of $100 billion in 2005 and $101 billion in 2006, after an inflow of $68.7 billion last year.
``The depreciation of the effective exchange rate has both accentuated inflationary pressures and driven actual inflation higher," the report said.
The Chinese government has tried to curb a real estate boom and other signs of overheating by a range of regulatory and administrative measures this year. Despite those efforts, ``the economy is accelerating again," Mr. Cotis said in an interview on Monday. ``The problem is still to contain activity," he said.
Forecasts in the report showed China's gross domestic product growing at a 9 percent rate this year and accelerating to a 9.2 percent rate in 2006, with inflation picking up to a 4 percent rate this year and next from 3.9 percent last year and only 1.2 percent in 2003.
Elsewhere in Asia, the report projected growth in Japan slowing to a 1.5 percent rate this year, down from 2.6 percent in 2004 and below the 2.1 percent rate forecast by the O.E.C.D. in December. The organization also said it expected Japan's consumer price deflation to continue into 2006. Still, Mr. Cotis said, Japan's economic state is ``fairly benign."
``They went through a soft patch, but then there were strong exports and investment in the first quarter, " he said. ``There is still some deflation, but we think that, with recovery, deflation will go away by the end of 2006. That's a bit delayed compared with earlier prognostications, but the forward-looking indicators are relatively good."
In particular, he said, a recent improvement in the job market, where employers are increasingly offering secure, long-term contracts, should lead to a recovery in consumer confidence.
underpin '加强...的基础，巩固，支撑'
sagging '下沉的，松懈的'
pegging '固定外汇价格，固定证券价格'
subdued '被抑制的，柔和的，减弱的'
underlying '潜在的'
revise '修正，校订'
dip '调整'
deposit '存款，押金，保证金'
flaccid '软弱的，无活力的'
surplus '盈余'
depreciation '贬值，减价，跌落'
curb '路边'，文章里用的是动词
benign '良好的'
prognostication '预言'
[ Last edited by annieingermany on 2005-5-30 at 16:49 ] |
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发表于 2005-5-23 18:56