经济学人|从数据出发,讨论川普关税政策是否是经济灾难?
作者：微信文章Tariff impactUncertern successAmerica's economy is dodging disasterEconomic doom beckoned after President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2nd. Stocks crashed; forecasters predicted a recession within the year. Three months on, the mood is more relaxed. Prices in shops are not noticeably higher, unemployment is flat and the S&P 500 index of big American firms is resurgent, back at all-time highs. Although Mr Trump has sent letters threatening a whole host of countries with swingeing tariffs if they do not reach an agreement on trade with America by August 1st, nobody is too worried. 4月2日，当唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布实施"解放日"关税政策时，经济灾难似乎已不可避免。股市暴跌，预测机构纷纷警告年内将出现经济衰退。然而三个月后的今天，市场情绪已明显缓和——商店物价未见显著上涨，失业率保持稳定，标志美国大型企业表现的标普500指数更是重振雄风，创下历史新高。尽管特朗普近期向多国发出通牒，威胁若在8月1日前未能与美国达成贸易协议将课以重税，但市场对此反应平淡。
单词：#doom/duːm/vt. 注定；判定；n. 厄运，劫数； #beckon /'bekən/vt. & vi. (用头或手的动作)示意, 召唤； #resurgent/rɪ'sɜːdʒənt/adj. 复活的,复兴的#swingeing/'swɪndʒɪŋ/adj. 有力的,巨大的,激烈的,猛烈的,极大的What gives? Was the president right in thinking that tariffs were a smart way to squeeze money from foreigners? Were the doom-mongers overdoing it?么回事？总统认为关税是从外国人那里榨取资金的聪明办法，这种想法对吗？那些危言耸听的人是不是夸大其词了？单词：#doom-mongern. 末世论者；散布恐怖威胁论的人； #overdo /ˌəʊvə'duː/vt. 把…做得过分；使过于疲劳；对…表演过火；夸张；vi. 做得过分；表演过火； For the moment, businesses, house-holds and financial markets are locked in an elaborate game of wait-and-see. Companies stocked up heavily early in the year in anticipation of tariffs. Indeed, they did so by enough to drag measured GDP growth into the red in the first quarter, as a surge of imports distorted the numbers.目前，企业、家庭和金融市场正陷入一场复杂的观望博弈中。年初时，企业为应对预期关税而大量囤货。事实上，这种囤货行为如此剧烈，以至于第一季度进口激增扭曲了经济数据，导致测算出的GDP增长陷入负值区间。These stockpiles will be run down. In many cases, they have already been depleted, meaning that businesses are turning once again to imports. Last month customs duties were more than three times as high as the average in recent years (see chart 1). Companies that bring in goods from abroad now face an unpalatable choice: either they can eat the tariffs and accept lower profits, or they can pass on the additional costs to their customers.这些库存将被耗尽。在许多情况下，库存已经见底，这意味着企业不得不再次转向进口。上月关税收入较近年平均水平高出三倍有余（见图表1）。如今从海外进货的企业面临两难选择：要么自行消化关税承受利润缩减，要么将额外成本转嫁给消费者。单词：#depleted/di'plitid/adj. 废弃的；贫化的；耗尽的；v. 使减少；弄空；耗尽…的资源（deplete的过去分词）； #unpalatable /ʌn'pælətəbl/adj. 味道差的,不好吃的； So far, they have mostly chosen the first option. Bosses are attempting to wait out the president. Why alienate customers with higher prices if Mr Trump may change his mind and render the exercise pointless? Even in the latest consumer price data, which still shows inflation a little above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, it is difficult to spot a tariff impact.迄今为止，企业大多选择了第一种方案。商界领袖们正试图用拖延战术熬过总统任期——既然特朗普可能改变主意让加税计划作废，何必现在就用涨价得罪客户？即便在最新公布的、仍略高于美联储2%目标的消费者价格数据中，也很难发现关税的影响。单词：#alienate /'eɪliəneɪt/vt. 使疏远, 使不友好, 离间；转让, 让渡(财产等)； In fact, doing so requires something of an economic microscope. Zooming in on the prices of affected categories at a handful of large retailers, AIberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School and co-authors do discern some slight price rises in both imported goods and their domestically produced competitors (see chart 2). However, such prices have risen by only a percent or two-a far smaller increase than that seen in tariffs. America's effective tariff rate was at 10% in June, its highest in eight decades. Mr Trump's threats, as are due to come into effect on August 1st, would mean a significant step up.事实上，这种做法需要借助某种"经济显微镜"才能观测到效果。哈佛商学院的阿尔贝托·卡瓦洛（Alberto Cavallo）与合著者通过聚焦几家大型零售商受影响商品类别的价格，确实发现进口商品及其国内竞争产品的价格出现轻微上涨（见图表2）。然而，这些商品的涨幅仅为1%-2%——远低于关税增幅。6月份美国实际关税税率已达10%，创八十年来新高。而特朗普威胁将于8月1日生效的新关税，意味着税率还将显著攀升。单词：#discern /dɪ'sɜːn/vt. 识别；领悟，认识；vi. 看清楚，辨别； Oddly, though, tariffs may be pushing down prices via another mechanism-by taking a toll on the economy. The Liberation Day drama crushed consumer confidence, possibly softening demand. Until recently, this has been evident only in "soft" data (surveys and the like). Now signs of it are starting to appear in "hard" data, too. A recent release showed that household spending fell month-on-month in May. Employment figures for June were strong, but bolstered by government hiring, especially of teachers. Those for the private sector were lower than expected.然而奇怪的是，关税可能正通过另一种机制压低价格——即对经济造成拖累。解放日风波重创了消费者信心，可能导致需求疲软。直到最近，这种影响仅体现在"软性数据"（调查问卷等）中。如今"硬性数据"也开始显现端倪：最新数据显示5月家庭消费环比下降，6月就业数据虽表现强劲，但主要依靠政府招聘（尤其是教师岗位）支撑，私营部门的就业数据则低于预期。单词：#oddly /'ɒdli/adv. 古怪地；奇妙地；单数地； #toll/təʊl/vt. 征收；敲钟；n. 通行费；代价；钟声；vi. 鸣钟；征税； #bolstered /'bəʊlstə(r)/vt. 支撑；加固；援助；给予必要的支持，鼓励；支持，鼓励(某人)；改善，加强(某事物)；n. 长枕，垫枕；垫子；衬垫；支持物；承板；承材； A running estimate of GDP, produced by the Fed's Atlanta branch, suggests that its core components (private investment and consumption) have fallen from an annualised growth rate of 2-3% at the start of the second quarter to 1% now (see chart 3). Goldman Sachs, a bank, has compared the latest data to previous "event driven" shocks that led to recessions, and found that today's slowdown is roughly in line with the historical norm.美联储亚特兰大分行编制的实时GDP预测数据显示，其核心组成部分（私人投资与消费）的年化增长率已从第二季度初的2-3%降至当前的1%（见图表3）。投行高盛将最新数据与历史上引发衰退的"事件驱动型"冲击进行对比，发现当前经济放缓程度基本符合历史规律。单词:#annualised /'ænjuəlaizd/adj. 年度的;v. 按年计算（annualise 的过去式和过去分词）； Brexit reduxWhether this is the start of something more serious depends, in large part, on quite how punchy the president feels on August 1st. Without another deadline extension or similar, a further slowdown seems likely. Moreover, as Britain discovered after leaving the European Union-the most recent case of a rich country imposing large trade barriers on itself-elevated uncertainty can by itself be sufficient to suppress business investment for quite some time. And America is now an extremely uncertain country.当前局势是否会演变为更为严重的危机，很大程度上取决于8月1日美国总统将采取何种强硬措施。若届时未能再次延长期限或达成类似解决方案，经济进一步放缓的可能性将大幅上升。历史经验表明——正如英国脱欧这一发达国家自我设置重大贸易壁垒的最新案例所揭示的——持续的高不确定性本身便足以长期抑制企业投资。而如今的美国，正深陷前所未有的不确定性漩涡之中。单词：#punchy /'pʌntʃi/adj. 强力的；头昏眼花的；All the same, a more significant slow-down does not necessarily mean a recession. Tariffs are colliding with an American economy that is, by any historical or international standard, extraordinarily dynamic. It has been growing at a consistent 2-3% a year since 2022. As a consequence, America is one of the few rich countries that might be able to shoulder even a sizable hit to its growth without falling into recession. The additional stimulus in Mr Trump's "Big, Beautiful Bill" is also front-loaded, meaning that it will provide a boost this year and next, which could help obscure the impact of tariffs (even if it also creates an inflationary mess for the Fed to handle). All this suggests a future in which economists endlessly debate the actual impact of the tariffs, while the American public barely notices them, despite having been left poorer. Not a triumph for Mr Trump-but not a disaster either.
尽管如此，经济增长显著放缓并不必然意味着衰退。当前美国经济正遭遇关税冲击，但无论以何种历史或国际标准衡量，这个经济体依然展现出非凡活力——自2022年以来始终保持着2-3%的年均增长率。这种韧性使得美国成为少数几个即使承受较大增长冲击也能避免衰退的发达国家之一。特朗普"宏伟壮丽法案"中的额外刺激措施更注重短期效应，意味着今明两年将获得增长助力，这可能会冲淡关税的实际影响（尽管同时会给美联储留下需要处理的通胀烂摊子）。种种迹象表明，未来可能出现这样的局面：经济学家们无休止地争论关税政策实效，而美国民众虽实际收入缩水却几乎感知不到其影响。这对特朗普而言虽非政绩亮点，但也算不上政治灾难。--END--
文：《The Economist》July 12nd 2025
译：Nancy
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