AI is useless, but it is our best bet for the future
作者：微信文章I used AI with success 5 minutes ago.Just five minutes ago, I was writing a piece of software and relied on AI for assistance. Yet, here I am, starting this blog post by telling you that artificial intelligence, so far, has proven somewhat useless. How can I make such a statement if AI was just so helpful a moment ago? Actually, there's no contradiction here if we clarify exactly what we mean.
Here’s the thing: at this very moment, artificial intelligence can support me significantly. If I'm struggling with complicated code or need to understand an advanced scientific paper on math, I can turn to AI for clarity. It can help me generate an image for a project, make a translation, clean my YouTube transcript. Clearly, it’s practical and beneficial in these everyday tasks.
However, except for rare, groundbreaking examples like AlphaFold — Google's AI that significantly advanced our understanding of protein folding — AI has yet to genuinely push forward human knowledge in a fundamental way. Aside from these few exceptional results, AI hasn’t (obviously) yet matched the capabilities of the very best human minds. If an AI system were at the same level as the brightest humans (and not better than that:it's not needed for a first humanity jump) we could deploy millions of such systems to accelerate research dramatically, transforming progress expected to take centuries into developments happening within decades, or decades into years.
Yet, if artificial intelligence remains stuck at its current level of development indefinitely (even if with small incremental improvements, enough to fire many translators, programmers, drivers, actors, ...), perhaps it might have been better not to have it at all. I mentioned this during a conference here in Sicily. The thought hadn't crossed my mind until I was asked on stage. While I was formulating my reply I asked myself: if we knew AI would only yield minor incremental improvements, would it be worth enduring the social upheaval caused by job losses and other stresses? Possibly not. Technologies should serve humanity by enabling greater cultural development, reducing suffering, and allowing us to achieve what otherwise would be impossible. The current level of AI, while helpful, doesn't fully achieve that.
That's why investing in AI is like making a bet. I advocate for further investment and continued progress — not necessarily because of what AI can currently do, but because of what it might become in the future. The advancements we see today often exceed our expectations, hinting at even greater unforeseen breakthroughs tomorrow.
For us proponents of AI, the argument shouldn't hinge solely on AI’s current abilities but rather on its potential. Five years from now, AI could offer revolutionary advancements in medicine, saving countless lives. In 10 to 20 years, it might significantly contribute to environmental solutions, clarifying complex issues or providing effective methods to mitigate climate change.
Even a modest breakthrough might clarify that climate change dynamics, while serious, can be controlled more effectively than we currently believe, or don't need control as they are not as dramatic as we may think, or that decisive action can resolve the problem within a manageable timeframe. The real stakes are in the future, not the present. To focus exclusively on today's AI capabilities limits our perspective and makes it challenging to convince skeptics. But if future developments meet or exceed expectations, the temporary social problems arising today would be a small price to pay for the immense benefits.
However, we must be cautious. Existential risks (AI potentially becoming a catastrophic threat) are real, though minimal. We must remain vigilant and prepared. Social challenges, too, require thoughtful attention from governments and societies.
Ultimately, I believe we must take the risk, persist, and explore what's beyond the frontier, because if AI fulfills even some of its enormous potential, it could redefine our capabilities, reshape society, and completely transform humanity’s future: for the better.
Now, let me go back to my LLM for free and fast code review.
-----------------------
5分钟前，我成功使用了AI。
就在5分钟前，我在编写软件时借助了AI提供帮助。然而，现在我却开始写这篇博客，告诉你人工智能到目前为止在推动人类知识的根本性进步方面似乎有些无用。如果AI刚才还在帮助我写代码，我怎么能做出这样的陈述呢？实际上，如果我们明确说明我们的意思，这里并没有矛盾。
关键是：此时此刻，人工智能可以显著支持我。如果我 struggling with complicated code 或需要理解高级数学科学论文，我可以向AI寻求清晰的解释。它可以帮助我为项目生成图像，进行翻译，清理YouTube字幕。显然，在这些日常任务中，它是实用且有益的。
然而，除了像AlphaFold——谷歌的AI显著推进了我们对蛋白质折叠的理解——这样的少数突破性例子，AI尚未真正推动人类知识的根本性进步。除了这些少数例外结果，AI显然尚未达到最优秀人类思维的能力水平。如果AI系统能达到最聪明人类的水准（而且不需要比那更好：对人类第一次飞跃来说不需要），我们可以部署数百万这样的系统，戏剧性地加速研究，将预计需要几个世纪的进展转化为几十年内的发展，或将几十年缩短为几年。
然而，如果人工智能无限期地停留在当前发展水平（即使有小的增量改进，足以取代许多翻译员、程序员、司机、演员等），也许根本不该有它。我在西西里的一次会议上提到这一点。这个想法直到我在舞台上被问到时才浮现出来。在制定我的回答时，我问自己：如果我们知道AI只会带来小的增量改进，忍受因失业和其他压力引起的社会动荡是否值得？可能不值得。技术应该通过促进更大的文化发展、减少痛苦、让我们实现原本不可能的事情来服务人类。当前的AI水平虽然有帮助，但并未完全实现这一点。
这就是为什么投资AI就像下注。我主张进一步投资和持续进步——不一定是因为AI现在能做什么，而是因为它未来可能成为什么。我们今天看到的进步常常超出预期，暗示着明天可能有更大的意想不到的突破。
对于我们这些AI的支持者来说，论点不应仅仅基于AI的当前能力，而应基于其潜力。5年后，AI可能在医学领域带来革命性进步，拯救无数生命。在10到20年内，它可能显著贡献于环境解决方案，阐明复杂问题或提供有效的方法来缓解气候变化。
即使是适度的突破也可能澄清气候变化动态，虽然严重，但可以比我们目前认为的更有效地控制，或者不需要控制，因为它们不像我们想的那么戏剧性，或者果断的行动可以在可管理的时限内解决问题。真正的赌注在于未来，而不是现在。仅仅关注今天的AI能力会限制我们的视角，使说服怀疑者变得具有挑战性。但如果未来的发展达到或超过预期，今天出现的临时社会问题将是巨大利益的小代价。
然而，我们必须谨慎。存在性风险（AI可能成为灾难性威胁）是真实的，尽管最小。我们必须保持警惕和准备。社会挑战也需要政府和社会的深思熟虑。
最终，我相信我们必须冒险，坚持不懈，探索前沿之外，因为如果AI实现其巨大潜力的部分，它可以重新定义我们的能力，重塑社会，彻底改变人类的未来：变得更好。
现在，我要回到我的大型语言模型进行免费快速的代码审查。
-translation powered by Grok-
页:
[1]